This year’s Super Bowl LV may showcase the best Quarterback matchup we have ever seen. On one hand you have the GOAT, Tom Brady, who is playing in his tenth Super Bowl and trying to win his 7th. On the other you have the Kid, Patrick Mahomes II, who has arguably had the most impressive start to a career we have ever seen, playing in his 2nd straight Super Bowl and trying to join an elite group of 8 teams in NFL history who have won back-to-back Super Bowls.
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So who is most likely to win? There are many ways to analyze this question, but as we know, the NFL is a quarterback driven league which is why we believe Mahomes is on his way to dethrone Brady as the GOAT.
First, whenever you analyze data you need to make sure you are analyzing on an apples to apples basis. Mahomes’ elite MVP season in 2020 led to the Kansas City Chiefs earning the #1 overall seed and a 2 week BYE. He then was knocked out of the Browns game with 7:27 left in the 3rd after shredding the Browns defense which had no answers for him. As a result Mahomes has only played an effective 1.624 games (Adjusted Games Played – Adj GP) during the playoffs. Brady who at 43 years old also had a great season turning a 7-9 team into a Super Bowl contender in 1 year has played 3 full games.
With this in mind, below is every key QB statistic and you guessed it: Mahomes beats Brady in every statistic this postseason by a wide margin.
Mahomes 34% better
Mahomes 8% better…
Completions per Adj. GP
Mahomes 54% better… Despite Mahomes averaging just 4 more attempts per game.
Yards per Adj. GP
Mahomes 25% better…
TDs per Adj. GP
Mahomes 6% better…
INTs per Adj. GP
Brady: 1 (3 total)
Mahomes 100% better…
Sacks per Adj. GP
Mahomes 170% better…
Mahomes 14% better…
Mahomes 31% better…
The stats for this QB matchup don’t end here. While the Bucaneers are scoring 2% more points on average this postseason than the Chiefs. It is their defense that deserves most of the credit as Tampa’s D has provided Brady and the offense short fields and 3 more drives per game due to playoff leading 7 turnovers. But it is Mahomes and the electric Chiefs offense that has been more dominant. The Chiefs are scoring 20% more and scoring TDs 40% more than the Bucs per drive. No team has been more efficient this postseason.
Yards / Drive
Chiefs 42% better. Either Bucs have had a ton of short fields or they are not moving the ball well most drives.
Score % / Drive
Chiefs 22% better.
TD % / Drive
Chiefs 40% better.
Drives / Game
Bucs are getting almost 3 more drives on avg than the Chiefs due to averaging almost 1 more turnover per game (credit Defense) and due to the fact that the Bucs move the ball 42% less per drive than the Chiefs giving the ball back to the opposing team faster.
Points / Game
The Bucs are only scoring 2% more per game than the Chiefs despite having 33% more drives per game.
Conclusion: Mahomes is playing better football than Brady. These are two of the hottest QBs in NFL history, but if we had to put my money down on one QB it would be on the Kid – Patrick Mahomes II. Are we watching the Michael Jordan of the NFL in his prime? This game will be a passing of the torch much like the 1991 NBA championship was when Michael beat Magic Johnson.